Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Central U.S.; Excessive Heat Across the Western and Southern U.S.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern/central Plains. Excessive heat with possible record highs and warm overnight lows will continue to impact much of the West into next week. Dangerous heat is expected across the Southern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic into the weekend. Read More >

NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDA
National Weather Service, Eastern Region Subseries

Papers 1 to 22 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Eastern Region Technical Memoranda (ERTM). Papers 23 to 37 are in the former series, ESSA Technical Memoranda, Weather Bureau Technical Memoranda (WBTM). Beginning with 38, the papers are now part of the series, NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS.

Papers are available from the National Weather Service Eastern Region, Scientific Services Division, 630 Johnson Avenue, Bohemia, NY 11716. Contact Jeff Waldstreicher or Eric Allen at ER SSD. Beginning with 91, the papers are available at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/TechMemos

ESSA Technical Memoranda

ERTM 1	Local Uses of Vorticity Prognoses in Weather Prediction. Carlos R. Dunn. April 1965.
ERTM 2	Application of the Barotropic Vorticity Prognostic Field to the Surface Forecast Problem. Silvio G. Simplicio. July 1965.
ERTM 3	A Technique for Deriving an Objective Precipitation Forecast Scheme for Columbus, Ohio. Robert Kuessner. September 1965.
ERTM 4	Stepwise Procedures for Developing Objective Aids for Forecasting the Probability of Precipitation. Carlos R. Dunn. November 1965.
ERTM 5	A Comparative Verification of 300 mb. Winds and Temperatures Based on NMC Computer Products Before and After Manual Processing. Silvio G. Simplicio. March 1966.
ERTM 6	Evaluation of OFDEV Technical Note No. 17. Richard M. DeAngelis. March 1966.
ERTM 7	Verification of Probability of Forecasts at Hartford, Connecticut, for the Period 1963-1965. Robert B. Wassall. March 1966.
ERTM 8	Forest-Fire Pollution Episode in West Virginia, November 8-12, 1964. Robert O. Weedfall. April 1966.
ERTM 9	The Utilization of Radar in Meso-Scale Synoptic Analysis and Forecasting. Jerry D. Hill. March 1966.
ERTM 10	Preliminary Evaluation of Probability of Precipitation Experiment. Carlos R. Dunn. May 1966.
ERTM 11	Final Report. A Comparative Verification of 300 mb. Winds and Temperatures Based on NMC Computer Products Before and After Manual Processing. Silvio G.Simplicio. May 1966.
ERTM 12	Summary of Scientific Services Division Development Work in Sub-Synoptic Scale Analysis and Prediction - Fiscal Year 1966. Fred L. Zuckerberg.
ERTM 13	A Survey of the Role of Non-Adiabatic Heating and Cooling in Relation of the Development of Mid-Latitude Synoptic Systems. Constantine Zois. July 1966.
ERTM 14	The Forecasting of Extratropical Onshore Gales at the Virginia Capes. Glen V. Sachse. August 1966.
ERTM 15	Solar Radiation and Clover Temperatures. Alex J. Kish. September 1966.
ERTM 16	The Effects of Dams, Reservoirs and Levees on River Forecasting. Richard M. Greening. September 1966.
ERTM 17	Use of Reflectivity Measurements and Reflectivity Profiles for Determining Severe Storms. Robert E. Hamilton. October 1966.
ERTM 18	Procedure for Developing a Nomograph for Use in Forecasting Phenological Events from Growing Degree Days. John C. Purvis and Milton Brown. December 1966.
ERTM 19	Snowfall Statistics for Williamsport, Pa. Jack Hummel. January 1967
ERTM 20	Forecasting Maturity Date of Snap Beans in South Carolina. Alex J. Kish. March 1967.
ERTM 21	New England Coastal Fog. Richard Fay. April 1967.
ERTM 22	Rainfall Probability at Five Stations Near Pickens, South Carolina, 1957-1963. John C. Purvis. April 1967.
WBTM ER 23	A Study of the Effect of Sea Surface Temperature on the Areal Distribution of Radar Detected Precipitation Over the South Carolina Coastal Waters. Edward Paquet. June 1967. (PB-180-612).
WBTM ER 24	An Example of Radar as a Tool in Forecasting Tidal Flooding. Edward P. Johnson. August 1967 (PB-180-613).
WBTM ER 25	Average Mixing Depths and Transport Wind Speeds over Eastern United States in 1965. Marvin E. Miller. August 1967. (PB-180-614).
WBTM ER 26	The Sleet Bright Band. Donald Marier. October 1967. (PB-180-615).
WBTM ER 27	A Study of Areas of Maximum Echo Tops in the Washington, D.C. Area During the Spring and Fall Months. Marie D. Fellechner. April 1968. (PB-179-339).
WBTM ER 28	Washington Metropolitan Area Precipitation and Temperature Patterns. C.A. Woollum and N.L. Canfield. June 1968. (PB-179-340).
WBTM ER 29	Climatological Regime of Rainfall Associated with Hurricanes after Landfall. Robert W. Schoner. June 1968. (PB-179-341).
WBTM ER 30	Monthly Precipitation - Amount Probabilities for Selected Stations in Virginia. M.H. Bailey. June 1968. (PB-179-342).
WBTM ER 31	A Study of the Areal Distribution of Radar Detected Precipitation at Charleston, S.C. S.K. Parrish and M.A. Lopez. October 1968. (PB-180-480).
WBTM ER 32	The Meteorological and Hydrological Aspects of the May 1968 New Jersey Floods. Albert S. Kachic and William Long. February 1969. (Revised July 1970). (PB-194-222).
WBTM ER 33	A Climatology of Weather that Affects Prescribed Burning Operations at Columbia, South Carolina. S.E. Wasserman and J.D. Kanupp. December 1968. (COM-71-00194).
WBTM ER 34	A Review of Use of Radar in Detection of Tornadoes and Hail. R.E. Hamilton. December 1969. (PB-188-315).
WBTM ER 35	Objective Forecasts of Precipitation Using PE Model Output. Stanley E. Wasserman. July 1970. (PB-193-378).
WBTM ER 36	Summary of Radar Echoes in 1967 Near Buffalo, N.Y. Richard K. Sheffield. September 1970. (COM-71-00310).
WBTM ER 37	Objective Mesoscale Temperature Forecasts. Joseph P. Sobel. September 1970. (COM-71-0074).

NOAA Technical Memoranda NWS

NWS ER 38	Use of Primitive Equation Model Output to Forecast Winter Precipitation in the Northeast Coastal Sections of the United States. Stanley E. Wasserman and Harvey Rosenblum. December 1970. (COM-71-00138).
NWS ER 39	A Preliminary Climatology of Air Quality in Ohio. Marvin E. Miller. January 1971. (COM-71-00204).
NWS ER 40	Use of Detailed Radar Intensity Data in Mesoscale Surface Analysis. Robert E. Hamilton. March 1971. (COM-71-00573).
NWS ER 41	A Relationship Between Snow Accumulation and Snow Intensity as Determined from Visibility. Stanley E. Wasserman and Daniel J. Monte. (COM-71-00763).
NWS ER 42	A Case Study of Radar Determined Rainfall as Compared to Rain Gage Measurements. Martin Ross. July 1971.(COM-71-00897).
NWS ER 43	Snow Squalls in the Lee of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Jerry D. Hill. August 1971. (COM-72-00959).
NWS ER 44	Forecasting Precipitation Type at Greer, South Carolina. John C. Purvis. December 1971. (COM-72-10332).
NWS ER 45	Forecasting Type of Precipitation. Stanley E. Wasserman. January 1972. (COM-72-10316).
NWS ER 46	An Objective Method of Forecasting Summertime Thunderstorms. John F. Townsend and Russell J. Younkin. May 1972. (COM-72-10765).
NWS ER 47	An Objective Method of Preparing Cloud Cover Forecasts. James R. Sims. August 1972. (COM-72-11382).
NWS ER 48	Accuracy of Automated Temperature Forecasts for Philadelphia as Related to Sky Condition and Wind Direction. Robert B. Wassall. September 1972. (COM-72-11473).
NWS ER 49	A Procedure for Improving National Meteorological Center Objective Precipitation Forecasts. Joseph A. Ronco, Jr. November 1972. (COM-73-10132).
NWS ER 50	PEATMOS Probability of Precipitation Forecasts as an Aid in Predicting Precipitation Amounts. Stanley E. Wasserman. December 1972. (COM-73-10243).
NWS ER 51	Frequency and Intensity of Freezing Rain/Drizzle in Ohio. Marvin E. Miller. February 1973. (COM-73-10570).
NWS ER 52	Forecast and Warning Utilization of Radar Remote Facsimile Data. Robert E. Hamilton. July 1973. (COM-73-11275).
NWS ER 53	Summary of 1969 and 1970 Public Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches Within the National Weather Service, Eastern Region. Marvin E. Miller and Lewis H. Ramey. October 1973. (COM-74-10160)
NWS ER 54	A Procedure for Improving National Meteorological Center Objective Precipitation Forecasts - Winter Season. Joseph A. Ronco, Jr. November 1973. (COM-74-10200).
NWS ER 55	Cause and Prediction of Beach Erosion. Stanley E. Wasserman and David B. Gilhousen. December 1973.(COM-74-10036).
NWS ER 56	Biometeorological Factors Affecting the Development and Spread of Planet Diseases. V.J. Valli. July 1974. (COM-74-11625/AS).
NWS ER 57	Heavy Fall and Winter Rain In The Carolina Mountains. David B. Gilhousen. October 1974. (COM-74-11761/AS).
NWS ER 58	An Analysis of Forecasters' Propensities In Maximum/Minimum Temperature Forecasts. I. Randy Racer. November 1974. COM-75-10063/AS).
NWS ER 59	Digital Radar Data and its Application in Flash Flood Potential. David D. Sisk. March 1975. (COM-75-10582/AS).
NWS ER 60	Use of Radar Information in Determining Flash Flood Potential. Stanley E. Wasserman. December 1975. (PB250071/AS).
NWS ER 61	Improving Short-Range Precipitation Guidance During the Summer Months. David B. Gilhousen. March 1976. (PB256427).
NWS ER 62	Locally Heavy Snow Downwind from Cooling Towers. Reese E. Otts. December 1976. (PB263390/AS).
NWS ER 63	Snow in West Virginia. Marvin E. Miller. January 1977. (PB265419/AS).
NWS ER 64	Wind Forecasting for the Monongahela National Forest. Donald E. Risher. August 1977. (PB272138/AS).
NWS ER 65	A Procedure for Spraying Spruce Budworms in Maine during Stable Wind Conditions. Monte Glovinsky. May 1980. (PB80-203243).
NWS ER 66	Contributing Factors to the 1980-81 Water Supply Drought, Northeast U.S. Solomon G. Summer. June 1981. (PB82-172974).
NWS ER 67	A Computer Calculation and Display System for SLOSH Hurricane Surge Model Data. John F. Townsend. May 1984. (PB84-198753).
NWS ER 68	A Comparison Among Various Thermodynamic Parameters for the Prediction of Convective Activity. Hugh M. Stone. April 1985. (PB85-206217/AS).
NWS ER 69	A Comparison Among Various Thermodynamic Parameters for the Prediction of Convective Activity, Part II. Hugh M. Stone. December 1985. (PB86-142353/AS).
NWS ER 70	Hurricane Gloria's Potential Storm Surge. Anthony G. Gigi and David A. Wert. July 1986. (PB86-226644/AS).
NWS ER 71	Washington Metropolitan Wind Study 1981-1986. Clarence Burke, Jr. and Carl C. Ewald. February 1987. (PB87-151908/AS).
NWS ER 72	Mesoscale Forecasting Topics. Hugh M. Stone. March 1987. (PB87-180246/AS).
NWS ER 73	A Procedure for Improving First Period Model Output Statistics Precipitation Forecasts. Antonio J. Lacroix and Joseph A. Ronco. Jr. April 1987. (PB87-180238/AS).
NWS ER 74	The Climatology of Lake Erie's South Shoreline. John Kwiatkowski. June 1987. (PB87-205514/AS).
NWS ER 75	Wind Shear as a Predictor of Severe Weather for the Eastern United States. Hugh M. Stone. January 1988. (PB88-157144).
NWS ER 76	Is There A Temperature Relationship Between Autumn and the Following Winter? Anthony Gigi. February 1988. (PB88-173224).
NWS ER 77	River Stage Data for South Carolina. Clara Cillentine. April 1988. (PB88-201991/AS).
NWS ER 78	National Weather Service Philadelphia Forecast Office 1987 NOAA Weather Radio Survey & Questionnaire. Robert P. Wanton. October 1988. (PB89-111785/AS).
NWS ER 79	An Examination of NGM Low Level Temperature. Joseph A. Ronco, Jr. November 1988. (PB89-122543/AS).
NWS ER 80	Relationship of Wind Shear, Buoyancy, and Radar Tops to Severe Weather 1988. Hugh M. Stone. November 1988. (PB89-1222419/AS).
NWS ER 81	Relation of Wind Field and Buoyancy to Rainfall Inferred from Radar. Hugh M. Stone. April 1989. (PB89-208326/AS).
NWS ER 82	Second National Winter Weather Workshop, 26-30 Sept. 1988: Postprints. Laurence G. Lee. June 1989.(PB90-147414/AS).
NWS ER 83	A Historical Account of Tropical Cyclones that Have Impacted North Carolina Since 1586. James D. Stevenson. July 1990. (PB90-259201).
NWS ER 84	A Seasonal Analysis of the Performance of the Probability of Precipitation Type Guidance System. George J. Maglaras and Barry S. Goldsmith. September 1990. (PB93-160802)
NWS ER 85	The Use of ADAP to Examine Warm and Quasi-Stationary Frontal Events in the Northeastern United States. David R. Vallee. July 1991. (PB91-225037)
NWS ER 86	Rhode Island Hurricanes and Tropical Storms A Fifty-Six Year Summary 1936-0991. David R. Vallee. March 1993. (PB93-162006)
NWS ER 87	Post-print Volume, Third National Heavy Precipitation Workshop, 16-20 Nov. 1992. April 1993. (PB93-186625)
NWS ER 88	A Synoptic and Mesoscale Examination of the Northern New England Winter Storm of 29-30 January 1990. Robert A. Marine and Steven J. Capriola. July 1994. (PB94-209426)
NWS ER 89	An Initial Comparison of Manual and Automated Surface Observing System Observations at the Atlantic City, New Jersey International Airport. James C. Hayes and Stephan C. Kuhl. January 1995. (PB95-213492)
NWS ER 90	Numerical Simulation Studies of the Mesoscale Environment Conducive to the Raleigh Tornado. Michael L. Kaplan, Robert A. Rozumalski, Ronald P. Weglarz, Yuh-Lang Lin, Steven Businger, and Rodney F. Gonski. November 1995.
NWS ER 91	A Climatology of Non-Convective High wind Events in Western New York State. Thomas A. Niziol and Thomas J. Paone. April 2000. (PB2000-106392)
NWS ER 92	Tropical Cyclones Affecting North Carolina Since 1586 - An Historical Perspective. James E. Hudgins. April 2000. (PB2000-106393)
NWS ER 93	A Severe Weather Climatology for the Wilmington, North Carolina WFO County Warning Area. Carl R. Morgan. October 2001. (PB2002-101441)
NWS ER 94	Surface-based Rain, Wind, and Pressure Fields in Tropical Cyclones over North Carolina since 1989. Joel Cline. June 2002. (PB2004-100997)
NWS ER 95	A Severe Weather Climatology for the Charleston, South Carolina, WFO County Warning Area. Stephen Brueske, Lauren Plourd, Matthew Volkmer. July 2002. (PB2004-100998)
NWS ER 96	A Severe Weather Climatology for the WFO Wakefield, VA County Warning Area. Brian T. Cullen. May 2003. (PB2003-105462)
NWS ER 97	Severe Weather Climatology for the Columbia, SC WFO County Warning Area. Leonard C. Vaughan. September 2003. (PB2004-100999)
NWS ER 98	Climatology of Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Central Appalachians. James Hudgins, Steve Keighton, Kenneth Kostura, Jan Jackson. September 2005. (PB2005-110418)
NWS ER 99	A Severe Weather Climatology for the WFO Blacksburg, Virginia, County Warning Area. Robert Stonefield, James Hudgins. January 2007.
NWS ER 100	Tropical Cyclones Affecting North Carolina Since 1586 - an Historical Perspective. James Hudgins. October 2007.
NWS ER 101	A Severe Weather Climatology for the Raleigh, NC, County Warning Area. Clyde Brandon Locklear. May 2008.
NWS ER 102	A Severe Weather Climatology for the Wilmington, OH WFO County Warning Area (1950-2004). Michael D. Ryan. May 2008.
NWS ER 103	A Climatology of Flash Flood Events for the National Weather Service Eastern Region. Alan M. Cope June 2009.
NWS ER 104	An Abbreviated Flash Flood/Flood Climatology (1994-2007) for the WFO Blacksburg, VA County Warning Area. Robert Stonefield and Jan Jackson. September 2009.
NWS ER 105	Dense Fog Climatology for the Blue Ridge Foothills and Piedmont Areas of the Blacksburg, VA County Warning Area for the Period 1973-2008. Jan Jackson, Ken Kostura and William Perry. February 2011.
NWS ER 106	Climatology of Storm Data Events for the NWS Mount Holly Forecast Area. Al Cope. March 2016.
NWS ER 107	Improving Freshwater Inflows to the NOS Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) and Assessing the Impacts on Salinity Simulations. Seann Reed, Amanda Roberts, Duke N. Lee and Breck Sullivan. November 2020.

	
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