Drought Information Statement for MONTANA Valid: MAY 17, 2024 Issued By: NWS Great Falls, NWS Missoula, NWS Glasgow, NWS Billings Contact Information: This product will be updated May 31, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/TFX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. D3 Drought conditions continue. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Montana Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None occurring D3 (Extreme Drought): Scattered areas across portions of western, central and southwestern MT D2 (Severe Drought): A portion of western MT, with scattered areas across portions of central and southwestern MT D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of western and southwestern MT and portions of central and eastern MT D0: (Abnormally Dry): Much of western and southwestern MT and portions of central, southern and eastern MT Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Montana Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Drought conditions worsened over portions of western, central, southwestern and eastern MT, during the past four weeks. No Change: No change in drought conditions, over the past month, were observed over most of western and southwestern MT, and portions of central, south central and eastern MT. Drought Improved: Areas of improvement occurred over scattered areas of western, southwestern, south central and southeastern MT, as well as, significant portions of north central, central and northeastern MT. Precipitation Precipitation (in): During the past month, most of the state received 1.0” to 3.5” of precipitation, with some isolated areas receiving more than 5.0” of moisture. Some areas of the state received less than 1.0” of precipitation. Percent of Normal Precipitation (%): Generally, the western third of the state received below normal precipitation, while the eastern two thirds of the state received above normal precipitation amounts. Temperature Most of The Treasure State experienced cooler than normal temperatures, while the northeastern portion of the state experienced mostly warmer than normal temperatures. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Above Normal: Portions of the Kootenai, Missouri-Sun-Smith, Musselshell, Middle Yellowstone and Lower Yellowstone River Basins, as well as, much of the Milk and Lower Missouri River Basins are experiencing above normal streamflow levels, with areas of much above normal to high streamflow occurring in the Milk and Middle Yellowstone Watersheds. Normal: The average streamflow for most of MT, is at a level that is considered normal. Below Normal: Most areas of below normal streamflow are located across western and northern central MT. Image Caption: USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid: May 15, 2024 Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile resides in the low range across western MT, while the eastern half of the state, generally, ranks 70% or higher. The Crop Moisture Index includes western MT in an area identified as, “abnormally dry,” while soil moisture values for the rest of the state continue, “slightly dry/favorably moist.” Fire Hazard Impacts Grasslands: Fire impacts continue possible a few weeks after fuels dry out. Mountains: Fire season begins after the snow melts out. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast During the week of, May 17-24, 2024, the western two thirds of the state is forecast to receive in excess of 0.75”, with the mountains receiving as much as 1.75” to 3” of liquid precipitation. The eastern third of the state is forecast to receive 0.25” to 0.75” of moisture during the same period. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. As of this time, no significant hazards are forecast to occur across The Treasure State from, May 24th through May 30th. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Looking ahead to the month of June, there is a higher probability for the western two thirds of the state to experience warmer than normal temperatures, while the outlook shows equal chances for warmer or cooler than normal temperatures for the rest of the state. Western and portions of southwestern MT show a better chance for below normal moisture, while there are equal chances for above or below normal precipitation for the rest of MT. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Persisting: Drought conditions are predicted to persist across much of western MT, as well as, portions of central, southern and eastern MT. Developing: Portions of eastern MT Improving: Isolated areas of northwestern, central and southwestern MT Ending: Isolated areas of northwestern, central and south central MT https://www.drought.gov/states/montana Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Mountain snowpack continues below normal, in terms of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), for this time of year. Montana is, generally, sufficiently below normal precipitation values. Further spring moisture remains important. Agricultural Impacts Possible impacts to crops and grasslands Fire Hazard Impacts Moisture replacement from now through June, along with the temperature trend during the last two weeks of June and the first week of July, will aid in assessing the summer season’s fire impacts. Other Impacts Impacts to outdoor recreation, especially river activities, are possible as we approach the Memorial Day Holiday, and the tourism season. Mitigation Actions Low snowpack does not equate to an absence of flooding. Flooding is possible at any time until the snow melts out of the mountains. We continue to monitor any potential flooding impacts which may arise, during our moist season, and as we enter thunderstorm season.